#FM16 : Foggia dei Miracoli IV : StS v3.0 (c)

Right then, as promised let us have a look at my slightly updated StS v3.0 (c) methodology.

Actually, it occurs to me some of you might be encountering this for the first time so a quick recap to save you the bother of reading everything I have ever written on the subject.

I don’t really care too much about a players technical attributes.  I really don’t.  I prefer to look at their performance stats – I mean, does it really matter if a striker has 18 for finishing if he only hits the target 23% of the time, leading to 3 goals in 32 appearances?  Not even a little bit.  Give me the guy with 6 for finishing that hits the target 57% of the time and nets 19 in 27 games.  Oh, and he will probably be cheaper too.

As I said, nutshell.

Yesterday I promised you this over the next few posts – the StS v3.0 (c) structure:

1. Analyse current squad (retain and release)
2. Decide what areas need strengthening
3. Set benchmarks for new recruits
4. StS in action
5. How the final decision is made
6. Results

Shall we start at number one then?

Before I can even start dipping my toe into the murky waters of player recruitment, I need to know what it is I am actually recruiting for.  To know this I need to think about some, or all, of the following:

• How did my squad perform last season?
• What KPI’s were they being monitored against?
• Using those KPI’s, what is a best practice benchmark I can set per position?
• Are the players above or below that benchmark?
• What kind of contract are they on?
• When is it expiring?
• Have they provided value for money compared to their wage to date?
• If I am to offer them a new contract, will their expected wage now deliver value for money?
• Do I want to retain or release?
• If released, do they need replacing externally or do I have cover within the existing squad or possible promotion from the Academy?

Just a few things to consider then.  Strap yourselves in, we are going to look at how I assess all those elements using the Foggia Lega Pro Girone C winning class of 2015/16.

We shall start with the goalkeepers.

At the start of the season I set up a KPI view for my goalkeepers that looks like this:

What does that actually tell me?  Well, it is clear I had a preference in goal to Stojanovic who was with us on loan.  He played 3420 minutes (38 games) and averaged 7.12.  Purely on average rating Stoj was ranked as 6th in Italy for goalkeepers that played more than 15 matches and 1st for any goalkeeper playing Serie C and above (basically the best keeper in the country at a professional level).  With Stoj, I don’t even need to look at the rest of the information – he was the highest performer in Italy.  It only comes down to whether I can retain him next season.  He is on loan from Bologna and I am not paying his wages, so it would be perfect if I could get him back next season.  However, we do not know at this stage whether that is likely, so I need to make a mark on my sheet that a back up plan is needed.  I don’t fancy Narcisco, he completed ten passes less than Stoj per 90 minutes in the games he played.  Narcisco is on a deal until 2018 on £1600 a week.  I don’t believe I will be able to shift him, but he has not moaned once about lack of first team games so he might be a sensible option as the number two next season.  I do know that finding goalkeepers on loan should be a fairly easy thing to do so if I cannot retain Stoj I am confident an adequate replacement will be found.

Let us reflect on the criteria:

• How did my squad perform last season?
  • Stoj was superb
• What KPI’s were they being monitored against?
  • You can see above – zero mistakes, good save numbers and good and starting attacks from the back with accurate passing % and high numbers of passes completed
• Using those KPI’s, what is a best practice benchmark I can set per position?
  • 0 mistakes per season, a clean sheet every 3.4 games, 25 passes per game and 87% pass completion
• Are the players above or below that benchmark?
  • Stoj above, Narcisco below
• What kind of contract are they on?
  • Loan and until full time
• When is it expiring?
  • Stoj – end of season, Narcisco 2018
• Have they provided value for money compared to their wage to date?
  • Stoj – yes, Narcisco – no
• If I am to offer them a new contract, will their expected wage now deliver value for money?
  • N/A
• Do I want to retain or release?
  • Stoj – retain, Narcisco – retain
• If released, do they need replacing externally or do I have cover within the existing squad or possible promotion from the Academy?
  • N/A

Goalkeepers were not the ideal starting point really.  Let’s look at my right backs.

It’s all about Benny really.  3451 minutes (38 games).  7.63 average rating.  18 assists (0.47 per game, basically an assist every other game) and 13% cross completion rate.  Oh, and 14.1KM run every match.  They are the key things I am wanting him to do – get forward, cross, assist.  We play a very attacking game, I am really not that interested in his defensive contribution.  Other things to note are 77% pass completion and 47.5 passes completed per game.  Now, Benny poses me an interesting conundrum.  I would like to keep him as my first choice right back next season.  His contract is up and I currently pay him £775 a week.  He would like to turn that into £5,250 a week.  I bet he bloody would.  Is he worth that?  Probably not, in all honesty.  The next guy on this list, Adj, is in on loan.  I’d like to get him back next season as he was superb in the two matches he played.  He doesn’t cost me a penny currently.  The other two boys are purely squad fillers.  All this said, I believe I will be looking for a new right back in the recruitment phase of all this.  The most I am prepared to pay Benny, in my mind, is £2k a week.  He won’t go for that.  Let’s review:

• How did my squad perform last season?
  • Benny – superb, Adj – very promising
• What KPI’s were they being monitored against?
  • Interested in average rating, assists (total and per 90), crosses completed %, distance run per 90
• Using those KPI’s, what is a best practice benchmark I can set per position?
  • 7.50, 15 assists (or 1 in 2 games), 15% and 14KM
• Are the players above or below that benchmark?
  • Both above
• What kind of contract are they on?
  • Benny full time, Adj on loan
• When is it expiring?
  • Both expiring end of season
• Have they provided value for money compared to their wage to date?
  • Yes
• If I am to offer them a new contract, will their expected wage now deliver value for money?
  • Benny – not on what he wants, Adj – yes, if I can get him on the same loan terms
• Do I want to retain or release?
  • Retain Benny on less than £2k per week – Adj, on loan ideally
• If released, do they need replacing externally or do I have cover within the existing squad or possible promotion from the Academy?
  • Externally

Starting to make sense?  Time consuming, no?

Left backs…

All about Ago.  He played every game, averaged 7.50, nailed 13 assists at 0.30 per 90, ran 14.3KM per match and completed 13% of his crosses.  He is £475 a week and has another year to run.  That’s an easy one – we don’t need a full review.  I do need another LB option as cover next season.

Central defenders…

Lupes is in on loan from Napoli.  I would very much like to have him back next season – 7.14 average rating had him as the joint 10th best CB in Serie C.  Loia was not far behind him, they formed as good a partnership as I could expect considering they rarely had any support from full back or the DM in front of them.  Kingsley and De Giosa made us look weaker when they had to fill in, so neither will be retained as you can see from the stats.  Loia, again, poses me a problem.  He is on £475 a week with a contract up at the end of the season.  He wants £2,700 a week.  For familiarity I would be tempted to do a deal at £1,700 but I do have a concern at how many goals he was responsible for.  I will be having a look at other available CB’s anyway, so will see if I can upgrade.

I’m not going to do the full review again, you should get the idea by now.  But the KPI’s I am most interested are are average rating, headers won per 90, interceptions (work it out per 90) and pass completion.  Acceptable to me for recruitment will be: 7.00+, 7 headers per 90, 10 interceptions per 90, 70% pass completion.

Midfielders…

For clarity, Vacca played as a DM/RPM behind a CM/S (typically Agnelli) and a CM/A (typically Coletti).

Using Vacca to set a benchmark for that role – I am interested in him as an attacking, creative force without doing the last bit (scoring) himself.  In fact, I am not looking for him to provide the assists, he is typically the pass before the assist (but FM doesn’t track that).  Therefore I really want to know what average rating, how many passes per 90, what % completion and how many key passes per 90.  Vacca has helped me set a benchmark of 7.80, 39 at 79% and 5 key passes per 90.  I would imagine that is going to be hard to improve on!  Fortunately for me, Vacca has another year on his deal on a mere £950 a week.  Happy days.

I’m interested in a little more from both Agnelli and Coletti – they are expected to provide me some goals too.  Between them they notched 18, many from distance.  So for the CM roles I am interested in average rating, passes per 90, what % completion, how many key passes, how many goals, shot on target % and distance ran.  Recruitment benchmarks are, as a result:  7.50, 38 at 78%, 4 key passes per game, 13.5KM distance.  Goals are slightly more arbitrary, if and when I recruit I will look at goals completely separately.

Do I need to recruit?  Coletti has another year as does Agnelli so no, I don’t believe I am looking for replacements.  I will need to consider back up options however, be it on loan or permanent.  If I can get Urso back again on loan, that would be great.  He showed early signs of actually beating both Agnelli and Coletti on the KPI’s.  Rondoni I am not fussed about and Quinto will be retained as he has another year and isn’t on big money.

Wide Advanced Playmakers…

I love these boys, they have been very exciting to watch.  The point of them was to drift inside on to their stronger foot and change the angle of attacks, whilst creating space for the full back to bomb on outside them.  One guy is not on the screen, Maza.  I had to sell him in January as his contract was up, and he was tearing the league apart.  He has gone back to Spain.

These guys are a huge example about knowing your tactic when it comes to setting your KPI benchmarks.  You could easily assume I am playing two number ten types who I expect to feed the main striker, therefore I could be looking for assists as a key metric.  Yeah, assists are nice but these guys don’t play the final pass.

Like Vacca in the DM/RPM role, these boys tend to play the pass before the assist – typically getting it wide for a cross.  The four regular players have contributed 30 goals by getting on the end of crosses, 40 if you include the 10 Maza got before he moved on.  Compare that to the 20 assists (including Maza) that they created and you can see they are more on the side of finishing than creating.  That said, I want them to play high numbers of passes per 90, and they will have an element of risk attached due to their style of play.  What am I looking for?  Average rating, goals, shots on target, shots per 90, passes completed per 90, % completion, key passes.  Looking at the players above, the benchmarks are:  7.40, (goals are arbitrary, will search manually if needed when recruiting), 42% shots on target, 1.2+ shots per 90, 40+ passes per 90 at 75%+ and 3 key passes per game.

But do I need to recruit?  The guys with me permanently, Viola and Sarno I like.  Viola has one year, Sarno two left on their contracts.  The money is right, they can stay.  Ideally I will get the same two kids back on loan as well.  Lodesani is one of our own younger players, and he has another two years so he will be staying.  He may move up the pecking order if I cannot retain the two loan boys.

Finally, strikers…

We didn’t win many without Iemmello playing to be honest.  Jara and Ghiglone can be forgotten about immediately, they were poor.  Average rating and shots on target will verify that, as well as goals.  Iemmello was out top scorer – 2.27 shots on target per game leading to 26 goals.  Sure, his % on target was poor but he delivered goals.  That’s all I am interested in really.  My worry is that he is on loan, so we might not get him back.  I want him back, but I will need at least one other option recruited.  Viola can do a job up there, as can Dalmonte so I could be flexible if good options are not available.

So, that kind of rounds up the first three points.

1. Assess the squad
2. Decide what needs strengthening
3. Set the recruitment benchmarks

I have been left with an action list like this:

That list moves into the following prorities, which we will cover next time:

• Try and retain the guys on loan that I would like back next season.
  • This is high risk – I cannot find an option to extend loan, so I will have to wait until the new season before I can try and re-sign them again.
• Offer contracts to those I wish to retain and have deals expiring
  • Remembering I have a top wage I will pay
• The exciting bit – start to draw up a shortlist of options for each position where I feel I will need to bring someone in
  • I will talk you through the process in one position, not for every potential signing
• Make changes to the plan as and when I have new information

I hope that has all made some kind of sense.  Just to recap – the point of today’s post was to show you how I assess my current squad at the end of a season, before embarking on potential recruitment using my StS v3.0 (c) method.

Any questions, feel free to fire them over – there is every chance I have missed something!